Analysis Corner: Twitter Mailbag

It's Rangers v Celtic on Sunday. Dougie thinks it'll be tight but one team will just nick it
Published 6th Mar 2018

By Dougie Wright (@dougie_wright)

For something a bit different this week, it's a Twitter mailbag. Including my prediction for Sundays Old Firm Game...

John Souttar, Harry Souttar, Ryan Porteous, Scott McKenna, David Bates and Jack Hendry have all contributed to something of a renaissance of young Scottish centre backs this season.

Bates and McKenna are pretty much the same player. Both can do the defending part of the job really well. Rarely dribbled past, outjumped or outpaced, the pair are “typical” centre backs. However, they have to work on their composure on the ball.

Harry Souttar and Porteous are similar to Bates and McKenna, but probably a level below. Both have made a couple of mistakes in their defensive positioning, however first team football is still a novelty for the pair. They’ll develop a fair bit over the next year if they keep seeing competitive minutes.

Jack Hendry’s an interesting player. Physically robust (strong, fast, good in the air), he’s also pretty calm in possession. If he gets the minutes, he should be playing for Scotland in no time. I think he could be a bit more aggressive when closing down players, and perhaps more proactive in defending in general, but the basis of a very good player is there.

John Souttar is lauded for his passing work, but he seems to be getting to grips with the defensive aspect of the game playing alongside Berra. Still makes too many positional mistakes to be near the Scotland squad, but he’s only 21. The next season will be crucial to his devepoment.

Of the six, Hendry’s the most promising, followed by Bates/McKenna. John Souttar can easily catch these three over the next year, while his younger brother and Ryan Porteous will hopefully thrive on more first team football.

This is probably the most exciting game of the season so far.

A win for the home side would put the Ibrox team within 3 points of their city rivals. If that does happen, then only the most arrogant of Celtic supporters would refuse to acknowledge that there’s a genuine title race.

Rangers will fancy their chances too. Scoring 18 goals in 7 Premiership games since the winter break has made them the league’s top scorers.

However, they’ll be facing the best defence in the country. Since their 4-0 defeat at Tynecastle, Celtic have kept 7 clean sheets in 10 Premiership games. Nevertheless, it’s been a rough couple of months by the champions’ standards. Their only comfortable victory in the league was against Hearts, and injuries have robbed them of their fluency in front of goal.

I don’t think either team will keep a clean sheet, and I think there will be at least three goals in the game. Right now, Rangers are playing the better football out of the two: I think they’ll nick it.

This time last year, these three teams were going through a miserable time.

While Killie and Motherwell were fighting to stave off relegation, only Hearts’ form under Robbie Neilson was preventing them from finishing in the bottom six.

Clarke and Robinson have reinvigorated the former two, while Levein has “steadied the ship” at Tynecastle. While Hearts have been erratic, they’ve blooded a lot of great young prospects (Cochrane, McDonald and Brandon), plus the 4-0 win over Celtic will live long in Hearts fans’ memories.

So who misses out on the top six?

Kilmarnock probably have the easiest run in. Of their remaining five games, the only top six side they face is Rangers. Home games against St Johnstone, Ross County and Hamilton should secure their place before their trip to Firhill in April.

Therefore, the last spot should be between Motherwell and Hearts. The former host both Celtic and Rangers, before tricky away ties at Hamilton and St Johnstone. Hearts, who play Hibs(a), Partick Thistle(h), Aberdeen(h) and St Johnstone(a), look to have a marginally easier schedule.

I reckon Motherwell will miss out this time around.

He’s actually used this in most of his time at Celtic when the team are attacking, with Lustig slotting into the defensive three, and Tierney effectively becoming a winger on the left.

Most teams in Scotland will either play a three man defence, or two centre backs and a holding mid. Therefore Celtic putting three up top allows them to go man to man with their opposition markers. The likes of Forrest, Sinclair, Griffiths and Dembele are all excellent at creating space for their team mates through off the ball runs, and if they’re pulling defenders away from the centre, it opens up space for midfielders to run in from deep (McGregor, Ntcham, Armstrong).

Given the abundance of attacking players at the club, this formation probably suits them the best. It allows Tierney, Forrest, Ntcham, Sinclair, Dembele and Rogic to pour forward, with Brown and the back three sweeping up any counters.

In pure output, neither are much worse than last season. Last year, Sinclair was scoring or assisting once every 96 minutes; this season it’s one every 108 minutes. Similarly, Dembele has slumped from a goal or assist every 77 minutes to a goal or assist every 76 minutes.

The trouble with Dembele is that he just hasn’t had the minutes. With ten games left to go, he’s still only played 925 minutes, the equivalent of just over ten full Premiership games. When he plays, Celtic score goals. If he had played more, Celtic would probably have scored more

For more analysis like this, follow Dougie on Twitter (@dougie_wright)