'No Chance' of Stoke escaping Tier 3 says city's health boss
Stoke-on-Trent's Director of Health and Care explains why it's very unlikely Stoke will move tiers.
Last updated 16th Dec 2020
It's thought ministers will discuss each area's situation today with an announcement expected tomorrow.
Dr Paul Edmondson Jones has said thinks there's "realistically no chance" that Stoke will be moved to Tier 3 based on a number of factors:
Local Case Rate
The first key factor is the general local case rate. That is, how many people in Stoke have the virus per 100,000 of the population.
Whilst Stoke's rate had been steadily decreasing just after the national lockdown, it now seems to be levelling off. It's thought a case rate of above 300 per 100,000 could be one-factor making ministers anxious about moving Stoke to Tier 2.
Local Over 60's Case Rate
Similarly, but more specifically, the over 60's case rate is how many people over the age of 60 in Stoke currently have coronavirus per 100,000 of the population.
A high over 60's case rate is particularly concerning as that is the age bracket who are most likely to become seriously ill.
The below chart is a heat map of which age brackets currently have COVID-19 in Stoke. In the top right-hand corner, the darker colours show a concerning number of over 60's currently have the virus.
This next chart is the same heat map but for the Isle of Wight. The Isle of Wight is one of the few areas of the country to be placed in Tier 1. This shows a stark contrast between the two, for reference.
Local NHS Pressure
The third factor is the amount of pressure COVID infections are putting on the local NHS.
The Royal Stoke is continuing to see a large number of COVID-19 admissions. A number of weeks ago it was moved into it's highest incident level in order to help manage the pressures.
The below chart shows the number of admissions of COVID-19 patients across all the hospitals in the midlands. After a small decline in November, admission rates have started to rise again.
All the above data is available to access at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dr Paul Edmondson Jones added, "I think there is a huge concern across the country at the moment that the national rates seem to have flattened and in some ways look like they may be turning back up again."
"Many of us that work with this day to day are really concerned about the impact of the Christmas break and what we may be seeing in January which is always a difficult season for the NHS anyway."
More than 34 million people in England are now in Tier 3, 21.5 million are in Tier 2; and just 700,000 in Tier 1.