Groceries inflation rate falls

It's at its lowest level since last year

Author: Jon BurkePublished 20th Jun 2023

The latest figures show grocery price inflation has fallen to its lowest monthly rate this year - but is still at its sixth highest level since 2008.

Analyst, Kantar, says Grocery inflation dropped to 16.5% for the four weeks to June 11, down from last month's 17.2% and March's record 17.5%.

It is currently at its lowest level since last year, but is still the sixth highest monthly figure since 2008.

Head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, Fraser McKevitt, said: "This is the lowest rate of grocery price inflation we've seen in 2023, which will be a relief to shoppers and retailers.

"But prices rising at 16.5% isn't something to celebrate and it's still the sixth highest monthly figure in the past 15 years.

"Price rises are now being compared to the increasing rate of grocery inflation seen last summer, which means that it should continue to fall in the coming months, a welcome result for everyone."

The figures come as a survey for Kantar found that of consumers' top five financial worries, rising grocery prices is the only one that they are more concerned about now than at the start of this year.

70% worried about food prices

Almost 70% of households are either "extremely" or "very worried" about food and drink inflation, compared to just over two thirds when asked the same question in January.

It narrowly remains the second most significant concern behind rising energy bills.

Consumers have been attempting to swerve the full force of price increases by switching to cheaper own label lines, with sales up 41% compared to last year, and changing how they eat and cook, Kantar said.

Mr McKevitt added: "People are thinking more and more about what they eat and how they cook as the cost-of-living crisis takes its toll on traditional behaviours.

"The most prominent change we've seen is that people are preparing simpler dishes with fewer ingredients. Our data shows that the public are turning away from their oven and increasingly using microwaves, which reflects the shift to simpler cooking."

There were 4% fewer meals made using an oven according to Kantar's most recent 12-week data compared to the same period last year, while microwaved meals rose by 8%, and Mr McKevitt noted a rise in food prepared with toasters and grills.

Meanwhile, the proportion of products sold for £1, the single most popular price for a grocery item, had almost halved in a year from 9% to 5%.

Mr McKevitt said: "Traditionally, 'round-pound' prices have been attractive to shoppers, who find them easier to relate to and practical as well with no leftover change.

"But, with retailers eager to offer value and cash buying less popular, £1.25 has emerged as an increasingly important price point. It now vies with £2 as the second most popular price for a grocery item."

Once again, consumers are not letting cost-of-living concerns prevent treat buying, with sales of ice cream and mineral water up by 25% and 8% respectively last month - despite prices up 20% and 17% on last year.

Barbecue food has also seen significant price increases, with fresh sausage prices up 16% and fresh burgers 13% more expensive.

Aldi was the fastest growing retailer for the quarter, seeing sales rise by 24.6% to a record market share of 10.2%.

Lidl's sales growth was only slightly behind its fellow discounter, increasing sales by 23.2% to take 7.7% of the market.

The cost of living crisis is affecting many:

Interest rates and inflation go up

Inflation rose by 8.8% in the 12 months to January 2023, down from 9.2% in December 2022. With interest rates also rising to 4%, those saving money will earn more interest on their finances, whilst those paying mortgages would pay more interest to the bank.

Energy bills

The price of energy went up incredibly as the cost of living crisis hit, with the gas price spike caused largely by the war in Ukraine. The price cap - which is set by an independent regulator to help offset costs onto customers - was set to rise to £3,549 for an average home in October but a price freeze from the government restricted the typical bill to £2,500. That's still an increase of 27% from the previous energy cap and as it's a cap on unit cost, the more energy you use the higher your bill will be.

Food prices

The cost of a weekly shop also has gone up as a result of the cost of living crisis. As a result of the war in Ukraine, a number of products including cooking oils and wheat have been disrupted. This means that several products are now considerably more expensive, driving bills up for customers.

Prices at the pumps

The average cost of petrol has also rose to unprecedented levels. Supply lines for petrol have been thrown into doubt as a result of the war in Ukraine, as Russia is a large export partner for gas, oil and fuel. In April 2022, the average price for a litre of petrol on the forecourt was 160.2p, whilst a litre of diesel would cost 170.5p. By late June 2022 the price had risen to an average of 190.9p for a litre of unleaded and 198.9p for a litre of diesel. In March 2023 the price wass on average of 147.03 in petrol and 167.04 in diesel.

Average cost of filling up a car with petrol hits £100

On 9th June 2022, the average cost of filling up a car with petrol hit £100 for the first time ever. Diesel had already hit that milestone. It comes as the cost of fuel hit a record high of one pound eighty a litre. The 2p rise was the biggest daily jump in 17 years. Prices have dropped by at least 20p per litre since the high point.

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