Analysis Corner: The curious case of Adebayo Azeez
Take two Scottish Premiership strikers. One has taken twenty-eight shots, the other thirty-two. Who do you think has scored more?
Last updated 28th Mar 2017
By Dougie Wright (@dougie_wright)
Take two Scottish Premiership strikers. One has taken twenty-eight shots, the other thirty-two. Who do you think has scored more?
Player number one is Aberdeen’s Adam Rooney, who has scored six goals for the Dons this season as Derek McInnes’ side look to push Rangers for second. Six goals from twenty-eight shots means that Rooney will score from around one in every five shots he takes- par for the course for a “good” striker.
Player number two is the subject of this article: Adebayo Azeez of Partick Thistle. Signed from AFC Wimbledon, the Englishman has yet to score from a proper shot, only netting one header against Dundee.
So what’s the issue?
Maybe it’s a case of poor shot location? Regulars will know the rule of thumb with shots outside the box: just 3% go in. If Azeez has been shooting from outside the box every single time, then he’s probably not going to have much luck.
Except he’s not:
This is his shot map for the season so far: every star represents a location from which Azeez has shot.
Ok, seven of the thirty-two are from outside the area, but the majority meet the criteria of “good shot location”: reasonably central and close to the goal.
Right, so he’s taking shots in good locations, but they’re not coming off. Is he maybe a bad finisher?
This is a basic diagram of where Azeez’s shots end up. The blue zone is anything that’s miles away from the goal; the red zone is up to half a yard away from the target, and the five green segments are the goal itself.
The first takeaway from this is that Azeez shoots at the keeper a lot. Indeed, eleven of his fourteen shots on target have gone directly to the keeper. In other words, of his thirty-two shots, just three have made the goalkeeper move to save it.
However, to flip this on its head, he’s either hitting the target, or coming reasonably close with the majority of his shots (eighteen out of thirty-two). He clearly knows where the goal is.
Ok, so he’s a striker who can hit the target from good locations, but just can’t seem to find the net. Is he maybe shooting in overcrowded boxes? You can be as close as you like, but if the opposition have put five men directly in front of you, then it’s difficult to hit the target, let alone score a goal.
Nope.
While nine of his shots have been blocked, Azeez has created eleven one on one situations for himself so far this year.
Why is it not happening for him?
Perhaps we need to look at this from a different point of view.
To reiterate: we have a player here who is taking good shots from good locations, a lot of the time without many other players in the way. What’s more is that he takes a shot once every 35 minutes (versus Rooney’s 52 minutes up at Aberdeen), so the quality and quantity of shots are there.
Rather than looking at why it’s not happening for him, we should be looking at these stats and wondering when it will happen for him.
The history of football is woven with prolific strikers who succeeded after an initial barren spell. In Adebayo Azeez, Partick Thistle may well have a striker who could join that club.
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